基于性能退化模型的万能式断路器操作附件实时剩余寿命预测
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TM561TH 165.3

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河北省教育厅资助科研项目(ZD2016108)资助


Realtime remaining useful life prediction of operating accessories for the conventional circuit breaker based on performance degradation model
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    摘要:

    针对万能式断路器操作附件的个体差异性以及在实际使用过程中动作不频繁的特性,提出一种基于性能退化模型的万能式断路器操作附件实时机械剩余寿命(RUL)预测方法。不同于传统的RUL预测方法,该方法融合了操作附件的历史退化数据与实时更新的状态监测(CM)数据。首先,考虑到操作附件性能退化过程具有线性非单调的特点,建立基于Wiener过程的操作附件性能退化模型;其次,对操作附件的历史退化数据采用极大似然估计法和一维搜索法确定模型参数的先验分布;然后,运用贝叶斯方法并结合操作附件实时更新的CM信息对模型参数进行迭代更新;基于首达时间的概念建立了RUL预测模型,以实现对断路器操作附件实时RUL的预测。最后,通过操作附件的寿命数据对本文所提方法进行验证,结果表明本文方法不仅可实现操作附件的实时剩余机械寿命预测,同时相较于其他文献方法具有更高的预测精度。

    Abstract:

    Considering the individual difference and infrequent action in actual operating accessories for the conventional circuit breaker, a realtime remaining mechanical life prediction method based on performance degradation model is proposed. Different from the traditional remaining useful life (RUL) prediction method, this method combines the historical degradation data of the operating accessories with the realtime condition monitoring (CM) data. Firstly, the linear and nonmonotonic degradation process of operating accessories is considered. A performance degradation model is formulated based on Wiener process. Secondly, the historical degradation data are utilized to determine the prior distribution of model parameters by the maximum likelihood estimation method and the onedimensional search method. Then, the Bayesian method is used to update the model parameters iteratively with the realtime CM data. Based on the concept of first hitting time, the RUL prediction model is formulated to realize the realtime prediction. Finally, the proposed method is evaluated by the life data of operating accessories. Experimental results show that the proposed method cannot only realize the realtime remaining mechanical life prediction of the operating accessories, but also has higher prediction accuracy than the methods utilized in other literatures.

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孙曙光,李勤,王佳兴,杜太行,王景芹.基于性能退化模型的万能式断路器操作附件实时剩余寿命预测[J].仪器仪表学报,2019,40(10):120-129

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  • 在线发布日期: 2022-03-09
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